Dr. Rita R. Colwell
Director
National Science Foundation
MITRE Corporation
MEDEA Fall 2000 Plenary Meeting
Science and National Policy
McLean, Virgina
November 29, 2000
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[title slide: science
and national policy] Use Back to Return to Speech.
Greetings to everyone. The previous discussions this
morning and afternoon have been useful. Being a biologist,
I interpret what I am hearing and seeing as an evolution
taking place. The MEDEA that was first formed in 1992
and started at work in 1993 is beginning to "morph"
into a 21st century version. I'd call it
a sort of ecdysis that is underway.
In this period of jostling and uncertainty I think
we can be certain of the continuing importance
of the work of MEDEA.
The issues we're discussing transcend political boundaries,
and the boundaries of nations. The global issues of
emerging infectious diseases, global climate, food
security, biotechnology, are issues that require long-term
strategies and a new MEDEA.
I would like to just mention briefly how one part of
MEDEA's efforts is already paying off--the work to
open up classified material as a resource for scientific
inquiry.
I'll move to the main part of my talk: a sketch of
how the most fundamental areas of science and engineering--from
mathematics to genomics--can have an immediate impact
on addressing national priorities.
Finally I'll say a few words about how we've woven
this synergy between basic and applied research into
our planning at NSF.
[declassified satellite
image of Dry Valleys] Use Back to Return to Speech.
I am showing you this satellite view of Antarctica's
Dry Valleys just to give a flavor of the potential
for civilian exploitation of classified data, particularly
classified imagery.
Since we last met in plenary session, the National
Science Foundation had the honor of hosting President
Clinton at our Antarctic support facilities in Christchurch,
New Zealand.
During his address on environmental policy, the President
announced the release of some newly declassified imagery
of Antarctica's Dry Valleys.
[Corona imagery pictures
from Scott Borg's talk] Use Back to Return to
Speech.
An earlier example is the "Corona" imagery from an
intelligence satellite, which has now been declassified
and has quickly become a widely used resource.
Here we have high quality data from three decades ago,
from the 1960s, that is comparable to commercial satellite
data from the 1990s. It is being used here to study
Antarctica's ice sheets.
In a very real way this imagery gives us the ability
to look back in time. (I would like to thank Scott
Borg of NSF's Office of Polar Programs for this slide
and the following one).
[SHEBA "NTM" {National
technical means} imagery] Use Back to Return to
Speech.
Here's another example, this time from the Arctic.
We see some recently declassified imagery of sea ice
structure that has proven useful in the SHEBA project.
SHEBA stands for Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic
Ocean, and this imagery gives important information
about the structure of sea ice. The leads of open
water are key conduits of heat.
This information is used to model the heat exchange
between the ocean and the atmosphere of the Arctic,
in this region that is so critical to understanding
climate change.
All of this imagery, and the science it enables, underscores
my main point: how fundamental science and engineering
dovetail with key national priorities.
I plan to highlight this dynamic through three general
areas: mathematics, an area that we call biocomplexity,
and the third, nanoscale science and engineering.
[MC Escher slide with
EO Wilson quote] Use Back to Return to Speech.
We cannot go to a more fundamental dimension than mathematics,
and yet we find that it has important applications
to environmental research and, indeed, to all of science
and engineering.
Mathematics is the ultimate cross-cutting discipline,
the springboard for advances across the board.
I've symbolized this here with an observation from
the biologist E. O. Wilson, who writes, "...mathematics
seems to point arrowlike toward the ultimate goal
of objective truth."
[a fractal image]
Use Back to Return to Speech.
Fundamental mathematics engenders concepts and structures
that often turn out to be just the right framework
for applications in seemingly unrelated areas.
A good example, pictured here, is the fractal, a famous
illustration of how inner principles of mathematics
enable us to model many natural structures.
[monkey face graphic
made of fractals] Use Back to Return to Speech.
Fractal sets like we see here can be used in computer
graphics to build clouds, plants, or the surface of
the sea. They are also a goldmine for medical modeling,
of lungs or networks of blood vessels.
[rocket and neuron]
Use Back to Return to Speech.
Newton's invention of calculus inaugurated a new role
for mathematics: to enable mechanics to flourish and
the physical sciences to thrive.
Today we watch mathematics empower new areas--biology,
neuroscience, information technology, and nanotechnology,
as represented by this nerve cell.
[weather prediction]
Use Back to Return to Speech.
Mathematics is the key to prediction in many spheres,
as we see in this example from meteorology.
Computing power at the terrascale, derived from mathematics,
gives us the ability to predict storms on a finer
scale.
In this map of Oklahoma, on the left the National Weather
Service has missed the storm. On the right the prototype
terrascale system predicts the storm.
[fantastic sea creatures
derived from knot theory] Use Back to Return to
Speech.
As a biologist I find the burgeoning two-way traffic
between biology and mathematics especially exciting.
I use these fanciful images, in which knot theory gives
form to fantastic sea creatures, to symbolize this
interchange.
Not only is mathematics revolutionizing biology, but
biology begins to foster new paradigms in mathematics.
The information science of life edges ever closer to
electronic information science. Advances in understanding
life may lead to new algorithms and new modes of computing,
notably biological computing.
[cholera genome]
Use Back to Return to Speech.
Here is an application of mathematics to biology dear
to my own heart: the elucidation of the cholera genome.
I have studied this organism's relationship to its
environment for most of my research career. Modern
mathematics has helped us reach the brink of being
able to predict, for the first time, the onset of
cholera epidemics.
The sequencing of the human genome has also drawn upon
sophisticated mathematics, and illustrates the onslaught
of data we face not only in biology, but also in astronomy
and elsewhere.
NSF's own math division director, Philippe Tondeur,
puts it this way: "Data acquisition used to resemble
drinking water from a tap, drop by drop. Now it has
become more like drinking from a firehose."
[Nature magazine
headline: "Recognition for mathematics is overdue"]
Use Back to Return to Speech.
You may have seen this headline recently in the journal
Nature: "Recognition for mathematics is overdue."
The editorial said that "the whole of science--and
society at large--will benefit" from boosting support
for math.
[mathematical sciences
in the U.S.] Use Back to Return to Speech.
The reality is, however, that our country's world leadership
of mathematics is fragile. We've been relying on overseas
talent and are not attracting enough U.S. students.
A few figures buttress the case: Fulltime math grad
students have dropped by 21 percent, and U.S. citizens
in graduate math dropped by 27 percent.
The support picture is dismal too: in 1997, only 12
percent of fulltime math grad students had research
assistantships.
With the end of the Cold War, NSF's role in support
of mathematics has become even more important. We
provide about two-thirds of federal academic research
support, and our share is growing.
But our grants in mathematics are small--much smaller
than those in other theoretical physical sciences.
[MSI: Three Frontiers]
Use Back to Return to Speech.
Our proposed new initiative in mathematics attacks
this situation on three fronts. We propose to advance
the fundamental mathematical sciences; accelerate
mathematical interchange between the disciplines;
and equip our students with mathematical skills and
literacy.
I'll add that the program is still very much evolving,
so the words are subject to change.
[biocomplexity]
Use Back to Return to Speech.
Our initiative on biocomplexity seeks to probe both
the physical and living realms of our world, and to
trace their interconnections. Biocomplexity is a timely
perspective because of the growing threats to our
environment and the expanding capabilities of our
science and technology.
Complexity gives us a perspective spanning all fields
and all scales--a richness across different orders
of magnitude. We know that many systems, such as ecosystems,
do not respond linearly to environmental change.
Up to now, we have sought understanding by taking things
apart into their components.
Now, at last, we begin to map out the interplay between
parts of complex systems. In October we awarded new
grants in this multiyear program.
[nano: three scales]
Use Back to Return to Speech.
On still another front is our program at the Lilliputian
level of the nanoscale, with NSF at the lead of a
multiagency effort. These images help us to orient
ourselves to this perspective.
At the left, you can see an atom, just a few tenths
of a nanometer in diameter. In the middle, the DNA
molecules are just 2.5 nanometers wide. To the right
are red blood cells a few thousands of nanometers
wide.
At this magical point on the dimensional scale, nanostructures
are at the confluence of the smallest of human-made
devices and the large molecules of living systems.
We are beginning to manipulate individual atoms and
molecules. We're beginning to create materials and
structures from the bottom up, the way nature does
it.
Nanotechnology could change the way almost everything
is designed, from medicine to computers to car tires.
NSF proposes to focus its nano investment on five
interrelated areas.
They are: biosystems, nanoscale structures, novel phenomena
and quantum control, architecture of devices and systems,
nanoscale processes in the environment, and the modeling.
[NSF's budget strategy]
Use Back to Return to Speech.
We continually help break new ground through the research
and education we support, but we can't let the knowledge
generated lie fallow. The objective of connecting
discovery to society is central to our work.
NSF's portfolio, by the very nature of our mission,
must be large and diverse, addressing all fields and
activities of science and engineering.
Our investments range from single investigator grants
to small groups of investigators to large multi-purpose
research centers.
In implementing our budget we have two major integrative
strategies:
Strengthening Core Activities, and Supporting Major
Initiatives.
Funding core activities keeps all the science
and engineering disciplines strong. We fund those
with the most creative and innovative ideas. These
core activities also identify prospects for more intensive
investment.
NSF is committed to fostering connections between discoveries
and their use in the service to society.
A key strategy for accomplishing this is by supporting
focused initiatives that enable NSF to center
attention on national and global priorities. I've
already described three our initiatives in mathematics,
biocomplexity, and nanotechnology.
[Pressures on NSF
Funding] Use Back to Return to Speech.
This chart highlights a few of these pressures and
gives us some numbers to consider. These are important
to keep in mind when additional investments are to
be justified.
For the purpose of reference I have divided the forces
on NSF funding into three categories.
The first is Process Improvements. Bolstering
these activities will greatly enhance our investment
return. The numbers to the right are estimates of
the total increased costs to implement these suggestions
across the board by FY 2005.
With these improvements researchers can spend more
time on learning and discovery and less time on writing
grant proposals.
Currently we are able to fund approximately one-third
of the proposals we receive. Thirteen percent of the
remainder are rated excellent or very good, but must
be denied due to budgetary constraints.
The ability to fund these additional grants would go
a long way in creating new discoveries and opportunities.
Furthermore, providing a reasonable stipend for graduate
and postgraduate researchers and educators would insure
that we do not lose bright young minds needed in science
and engineering.
This proper compensation will attract a more diverse
population into the science and engineering workforce.
The second category highlights some of the many calls
for concerted national investment.
The first two of these areas are addressed in part
by our information technology and biocomplexity initiatives.
Again, the numbers at the right represent the estimated
costs for the NSF to implement these directives fully
over the next four to five years.
Finally, I have listed emerging opportunities
and noted their current levels of NSF funding this
year as points of reference.
The total at the bottom provides us with a number to
keep in mind as a starting point when we think of
increasing investments.
However, these suggestions are merely academic if we
do not effectively convey their importance to the
public.
NSF-funded activities have the potential to reach a
greater percentage of the American population than
they do today.
We have the potential to meet a great need, as the
world becomes increasingly complex and science and
technology play an ever more prominent role.
[NSF: Where Discoveries
Begin] Use Back to Return to Speech.
I believe that all of the science and engineering that
we support has great actual or potential bearing on
our national interest.
Although we cannot always foresee how our support will
benefit the nation, in hindsight we can look back
and see how it has happened.
We've seen how so much of NSF's portfolio serves as
a foundation for areas of interest to MEDEA.
I will close by reemphasizing how important it is for
us to keep taking the longer view, and for continuing
to foster these connections between our science and
our society.
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